#philosophy $$\LARGE P(B|A)=\frac{P(B)\cdot P(A|B)}{P(A)}$$ Suppose that we have some hypothesis, and a piece of evidence for it. Then: $$\LARGE P(h|e)=\frac{P(h)\cdot P(e|h)}{P(e)}$$ $\LARGE P(h|e)$ is the **posterior probability of the hypothesis** - after the evidence comes in $\LARGE P(h)$ is the **prior or antecedent probability of the hypothesis** - how likely the hypothesis from the word go $\LARGE P(e|h)$ is **the probability of the evidence, given h**. Measure of the **fit** between the hypothesis and the evidence. - how well does the evidence accord with the hypothesis $\LARGE P(e)$ is the **prior or antecedent probability of the evidence** itself. - how likely is the evidence from the word go Example: ![[Pasted image 20240908152421.png]]